A Mathematical Theory of Belief
Louis Narens
Department of Cognitive Sciences
University of California, Irvine
92717 Irvine, CA, USA
[email protected]
A theory of belief is axiomatized in terms of a qualitative
binary relation that may be interpreted as “the degree
of belief of the conditional event AjB is greater than the
degree of belief of the conditional event CjD". Repre-sentation
theorems establish that the qualitative axiom-atization
is a proper generalization of a theory of con-ditional
probability. As a generalization, it has various
interpretations, including one where uncertainty is mea-sured
in terms of two dimensions – one being probability
(as usually defined) and the other a dimension called
'ambiguity'. There are strong links between this theory of
belief and the descriptive theory of probability judgments
known as "Support Theory".
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